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ATK Mohun Bagan vs Al Hussein — AFC Cup 2018

ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
CANC
13:45
Al Hussein
Al Hussein
11/4/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan50%
×Draw22%
Al Hussein28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.93
Al Hussein
1.40

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
2.15
Al Hussein
1.57

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.23
Al Hussein
1.71

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par
Al Hussein+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Al Hussein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw
72%
ATK Mohun Bagan or Al Hussein
78%
Draw or Al Hussein
50%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
28%
Al Hussein wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
85%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
57%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
30%
Al Hussein 1+ goals
75%
Al Hussein 2+ goals
41%
Al Hussein 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
64%
Al Hussein (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Al Hussein away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.15 + Al Hussein defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.93

Al Hussein attack 1.57 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
50%
level
22%
Al Hussein scores more
28%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ATK Mohun Bagan vs Al Hussein — Match Preview

ATK Mohun Bagan face Al Hussein on November 4, 2025 in this AFC Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

ATK Mohun Bagan host Al Hussein at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.