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Al Hussein vs ATK Mohun Bagan — AFC Cup 2018

Al Hussein
Al Hussein
CANC
18:15
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
10/21/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Amman International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Hussein46%
×Draw21%
ATK Mohun Bagan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hussein
2.08
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.72

Al Hussein creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Hussein
1.86
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.14

allows per match

Al Hussein
1.29
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.29

finishing

Al Hussein+0.00on par
ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hussein ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Al Hussein or draw
68%
Al Hussein or ATK Mohun Bagan
79%
Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan
54%

Winning margin

Al Hussein wins by 2+
27%
ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Hussein 1+ goals
87%
Al Hussein 2+ goals
61%
Al Hussein 3+ goals
34%
ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
82%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
51%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Al Hussein (draw refunded)
59%
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hussein at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hussein attack 1.86 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.08

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Al Hussein defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Hussein scores more
46%
level
21%
ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
32%

Al Hussein at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Hussein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Al Hussein host ATK Mohun Bagan

October 21, 2025: Al Hussein take on ATK Mohun Bagan in AFC Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Al Hussein host ATK Mohun Bagan at Amman International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.