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Athletic Club vs Remo — Serie B 2026

Athletic Club
Athletic Club
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Remo
Remo
6/29/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 14Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Athletic Club37%
×Draw28%
Remo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club
1.21
Remo
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 38 away

creates per match

Athletic Club
1.04
Remo
1.18

allows per match

Athletic Club
1.21
Remo
1.37

finishing

Athletic Club+0.00on par
Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Remo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw
64%
Athletic Club or Remo
72%
Draw or Remo
63%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+
16%
Remo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals
70%
Athletic Club 2+ goals
34%
Athletic Club 3+ goals
12%
Remo 1+ goals
70%
Remo 2+ goals
33%
Remo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)
51%
Remo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Remo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.04 + Remo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Remo attack 1.18 + Athletic Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Athletic Club scores more
37%
level
28%
Remo scores more
36%

Athletic Club at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club vs Remo

Remo beat Athletic Club 2-1 in Serie B on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Portugal in Minas Gerais.