Athletic Club 3–1 Remo: Result & Stats | Serie C

Athletic Club

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Remo

4/27/2024

Serie C · Round 2Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Athletic Club52%

×Draw25%

Remo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchRemo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.95

Athletic Club

1.57

Remo

0.95

Athletic Club creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 64 away

1.92

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.92

Remo

0.89

allows per match

Athletic Club

1.00

Remo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club+0.00on par

Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Remo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

77%

Athletic Club or Remo

75%

Draw or Remo

48%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

27%

Remo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

79%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

46%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

21%

Remo 1+ goals

61%

Remo 2+ goals

25%

Remo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

69%

Remo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Remo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.92 + Remo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.57

Remo attack 0.89 + Athletic Club defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Athletic Club scores more

52%

level

25%

Remo scores more

23%

Athletic Club at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff