Athletic Club 2–1 Ipatinga: Result & Stats

Athletic Club

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ipatinga

1/24/2024

Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Athletic Club52%

×Draw23%

Ipatinga24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchIpatinga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.16

Athletic Club

1.81

Ipatinga

1.16

Athletic Club creates 56% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 10 away

1.52

creates per match

1.40

0.91

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.52

Ipatinga

1.40

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.91

Ipatinga

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club+0.00on par

Ipatinga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Ipatinga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

76%

Athletic Club or Ipatinga

77%

Draw or Ipatinga

48%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

29%

Ipatinga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

84%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

54%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

27%

Ipatinga 1+ goals

69%

Ipatinga 2+ goals

32%

Ipatinga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

68%

Ipatinga (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Ipatinga away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.52 + Ipatinga defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ipatinga attack 1.40 + Athletic Club defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Athletic Club scores more

52%

level

23%

Ipatinga scores more

24%

Athletic Club at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff