Athletic Club 2–2 Ipatinga: Result & Stats

Athletic Club

FT

2 – 2

Ipatinga

11/7/2020

Mineiro - 2 · Quadrangular - 1Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Athletic Club56%

×Draw25%

Ipatinga20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchIpatinga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.87

Athletic Club

1.65

Ipatinga

0.87

Athletic Club creates 90% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 37 away

1.88

creates per match

1.11

0.63

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.88

Ipatinga

1.11

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.63

Ipatinga

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club+0.00on par

Ipatinga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Ipatinga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

80%

Athletic Club or Ipatinga

75%

Draw or Ipatinga

44%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

30%

Ipatinga wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

81%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

49%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

23%

Ipatinga 1+ goals

58%

Ipatinga 2+ goals

22%

Ipatinga 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

74%

Ipatinga (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Ipatinga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.88 + Ipatinga defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ipatinga attack 1.11 + Athletic Club defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Athletic Club scores more

56%

level

25%

Ipatinga scores more

20%

Athletic Club at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff