Athletic Club 0–0 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Athletic Club

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cuiaba

5/9/2026

Serie B · Round 8Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Athletic Club37%

×Draw33%

Cuiaba30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.82

Athletic Club

0.94

Cuiaba

0.82

Athletic Club creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.10

creates per match

0.70

0.95

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.10

Cuiaba

0.70

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.95

Cuiaba

0.77

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Athletic Club-0.10scores less

Cuiaba-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

70%

Athletic Club or Cuiaba

67%

Draw or Cuiaba

63%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

13%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

61%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

24%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

7%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

56%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

20%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

55%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.95 · 15 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.77 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.10 + Cuiaba defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Cuiaba attack 0.70 + Athletic Club defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Athletic Club scores more

37%

level

33%

Cuiaba scores more

30%

Athletic Club at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Marcelo Carne

Cuiaba · G

7.9

Match Events

45+2'

Eric

54'

Samuel Otusanya← Gabriel Moyses

54'

Bruninho← Max

61'

Luis Soares← Eric Melo

61'

Y. Asad← Rodrigo Rodrigues

65'

Kauan Rodrigues

65'

João Basso

68'

Vinicius Peixoto← Kauan Cristtyan

75'

G. Cabezas← Pedro Oliveira

77'

Bruninho

82'

Gustavinho← Jota

82'

D. Vera← Kauan Rodrigues

82'

Weverson← Pepe

87'

Lucas Belezi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AthleticCuiaba

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots7

0.54Expected Goals (xG)0.47

6Corners6

11Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots7

1On Target1

2Off Target3

5Blocked3

3Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

438Total Passes333

384Accurate Passes268

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.31Goals Prevented0.31

Discipline

11Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1