Athletic Club 0–2 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Athletic Club

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cuiaba

Matheusinho 87', 13'

5/31/2025

Serie B · Round 10Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Athletic Club37%

×Draw33%

Cuiaba30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.82

Athletic Club

0.94

Cuiaba

0.82

Athletic Club creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.10

creates per match

0.70

0.95

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.10

Cuiaba

0.70

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.95

Cuiaba

0.77

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Athletic Club-0.10scores less

Cuiaba-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

70%

Athletic Club or Cuiaba

67%

Draw or Cuiaba

63%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

13%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

61%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

24%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

7%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

56%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

20%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

55%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.95 · 15 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.77 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.10 + Cuiaba defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Cuiaba attack 0.70 + Athletic Club defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Athletic Club scores more

37%

level

33%

Cuiaba scores more

30%

Athletic Club at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Matheusinho

Cuiaba · D

8.9

Match Events

13'

Matheusinho

21'

Alexsandro Amorim

46'

Denilson

46'

F. Marllon← David Braga

46'

Alason Carioca← Max

55'

Leonardo Ataide← Sander

58'

Alex Nascimento

63'

Caick← Yuri

63'

Gustavao← Neto Costa

68'

Mateus Pasinato

71'

Wesley Gasolina← Douglas Pele

74'

Jadson← Edu

75'

David Miguel← Max Alves

75'

Lucas Mineiro← Denilson Alves

80'

Calebe Costa← Juan Christian

87'

Matheusinho

89'

Diego Fumaça

90+1'

David

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AthleticCuiaba

Overview

59%Possession41%

8Total Shots13

3Corners3

16Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots13

1On Target4

4Off Target5

3Blocked4

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

413Total Passes289

348Accurate Passes225

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2