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Athletic Club II vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
2/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Instalaciones de Lezama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Athletic Club II46%
×Draw27%
Arenas Getxo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
1.42
Arenas Getxo
1.03

Athletic Club II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 27 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.57
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

Athletic Club II
1.06
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
73%
Athletic Club II or Arenas Getxo
73%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
54%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
22%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
76%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
41%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
17%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
64%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
28%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
63%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 47 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.57 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Athletic Club II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
46%
level
27%
Arenas Getxo scores more
27%

Athletic Club II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club II vs Arenas Getxo

Athletic Club II and Arenas Getxo drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama in Lezama.