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Arenas Getxo vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
10/18/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Municipal de Gobela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenas Getxo36%
×Draw29%
Athletic Club II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.14
Athletic Club II
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 45 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
0.85
Athletic Club II
1.20

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.04
Athletic Club II
1.42

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
65%
Arenas Getxo or Athletic Club II
71%
Draw or Athletic Club II
64%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
15%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
68%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
32%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
11%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
67%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
31%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
51%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Athletic Club II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.14

Athletic Club II attack 1.20 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
36%
level
29%
Athletic Club II scores more
35%

Arenas Getxo at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenas Getxo vs Athletic Club II

Arenas Getxo and Athletic Club II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Gobela in Getxo.