Atenas 1–1 Progreso: Result & Stats

Atenas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Progreso

11/14/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 22Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atenas28%

×Draw26%

Progreso46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtenasExpected goals in this matchProgreso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.47

Atenas

1.08

Progreso

1.47

Progreso creates 36% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

1.05

creates per match

1.88

1.06

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Atenas

1.05

Progreso

1.88

allows per match

Atenas

1.06

Progreso

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atenas+0.00on par

Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atenas ↓

Progreso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atenas or draw

54%

Atenas or Progreso

74%

Draw or Progreso

72%

Winning margin

Atenas wins by 2+

11%

Progreso wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Atenas 1+ goals

66%

Atenas 2+ goals

29%

Atenas 3+ goals

10%

Progreso 1+ goals

77%

Progreso 2+ goals

43%

Progreso 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atenas (draw refunded)

38%

Progreso (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atenas at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.06 · 94 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atenas attack 1.05 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Progreso attack 1.88 + Atenas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atenas scores more

28%

level

26%

Progreso scores more

46%

Progreso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff