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Atenas vs Progreso — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Atenas
Atenas
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
Progreso
Progreso
5/5/2018Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Round 15Estadio Atenas (San Carlos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atenas39%
×Draw25%
Progreso36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atenas
1.50
Progreso
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 62 away

creates per match

Atenas
1.33
Progreso
1.21

allows per match

Atenas
1.67
Progreso
1.66

finishing

Atenas+0.00on par
Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atenas ↓

Progreso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atenas or draw
64%
Atenas or Progreso
75%
Draw or Progreso
61%

Winning margin

Atenas wins by 2+
19%
Progreso wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atenas 1+ goals
78%
Atenas 2+ goals
44%
Atenas 3+ goals
19%
Progreso 1+ goals
76%
Progreso 2+ goals
42%
Progreso 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atenas (draw refunded)
52%
Progreso (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atenas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atenas attack 1.33 + Progreso defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Progreso attack 1.21 + Atenas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atenas scores more
39%
level
25%
Progreso scores more
36%

Atenas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atenas vs Progreso

Progreso beat Atenas 6-0 in Primera División - Apertura on May 5, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atenas (San Carlos).