Atenas 0–1 Albion FC: Result & Stats

Atenas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albion FC

8/10/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Atenas35%

×Draw29%

Albion FC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtenasExpected goals in this matchAlbion FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.09

Atenas

1.08

Albion FC

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 95 away

1.05

creates per match

1.12

1.06

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Atenas

1.05

Albion FC

1.12

allows per match

Atenas

1.06

Albion FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atenas+0.00on par

Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atenas ↓

Albion FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atenas or draw

64%

Atenas or Albion FC

71%

Draw or Albion FC

65%

Winning margin

Atenas wins by 2+

14%

Albion FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atenas 1+ goals

66%

Atenas 2+ goals

29%

Atenas 3+ goals

10%

Albion FC 1+ goals

66%

Albion FC 2+ goals

30%

Albion FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atenas (draw refunded)

50%

Albion FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atenas at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.06 · 94 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.11 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atenas attack 1.05 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Albion FC attack 1.12 + Atenas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atenas scores more

35%

level

29%

Albion FC scores more

36%

Albion FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff