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Albion FC vs Atenas — Segunda División 2026

Albion FC
Albion FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atenas
Atenas
9/13/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 17Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Albion FC40%
×Draw29%
Atenas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion FC
1.20
Atenas
1.04

Albion FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

creates per match

Albion FC
1.23
Atenas
1.04

allows per match

Albion FC
1.05
Atenas
1.17

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par
Atenas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

Atenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw
68%
Albion FC or Atenas
71%
Draw or Atenas
60%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+
17%
Atenas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals
70%
Albion FC 2+ goals
34%
Albion FC 3+ goals
12%
Atenas 1+ goals
65%
Atenas 2+ goals
28%
Atenas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)
56%
Atenas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Atenas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.23 + Atenas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Atenas attack 1.04 + Albion FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albion FC scores more
40%
level
29%
Atenas scores more
32%

Albion FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Albion FC 1–0 Atenas

Albion FC beat Atenas 1-0 in Segunda División on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Palermo in Montevideo.