Atalanta 5–0 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Parma

Josip Iličić 71', 60'

Robin Gosens 43'

Remo Freuler 34'

Alejandro Gómez 11'

1/6/2020

Serie A · Round 18Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Atalanta58%

×Draw24%

Parma18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.82

Atalanta

1.71

Parma

0.82

Atalanta creates 109% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

1.81

creates per match

0.80

0.84

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

Parma

1.60

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

82%

Atalanta or Parma

76%

Draw or Parma

42%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

33%

Parma wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

82%

Atalanta 2+ goals

51%

Atalanta 3+ goals

24%

Parma 1+ goals

56%

Parma 2+ goals

20%

Parma 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

77%

Parma (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

Parma attack 0.80 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atalanta scores more

58%

level

24%

Parma scores more

18%

Atalanta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72

Josip Iličić

Atalanta · F

9.4

Match Events

8'

Antonino Barillà

11'

Alejandro Gómez↳ Marten de Roon

27'

Giuseppe Pezzella

29'

Alejandro Gómez

34'

Remo Freuler↳ Alejandro Gómez

43'

Robin Gosens

46'

Roberto Inglese← Mattia Sprocati

57'

Juraj Kucka

60'

Josip Iličić↳ Robin Gosens

67'

Vincent Laurini← Juraj Kucka

70'

Remo Freuler

71'

Josip Iličić↳ Rafael Tolói

71'

Hernani

72'

Duván Zapata← Luis Muriel

78'

Ruslan Malinovskyi← Alejandro Gómez

78'

Gastón Brugman← Alberto Grassi

84'

Amad Traoré← Josip Iličić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaParma

Overview

61%Possession39%

23Total Shots5

2Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots5

10On Target1

8Off Target2

5Blocked2

15Inside Box0

8Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

569Total Passes357

478Accurate Passes265

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Serie A: Atalanta 5–0 Parma

Atalanta beat Parma 5-0 in Serie A on January 6, 2020.

Goals: Alejandro Gómez (11'), Remo Freuler (34'), Robin Gosens (43'), Josip Iličić (60', 71').

Atalanta controlled possession (61%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.

Atalanta vs Parma — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Atalanta 5–0 Parma