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ASV Salzburg vs Altenmarkt — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

ASV Salzburg
ASV Salzburg
FT
1 – 2
Altenmarkt
Altenmarkt
6/2/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 25Toni-Kronreif-Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

ASV Salzburg44%
×Draw21%
Altenmarkt35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Salzburg
2.09
Altenmarkt
1.87

ASV Salzburg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 37 away

creates per match

ASV Salzburg
1.21
Altenmarkt
1.38

allows per match

ASV Salzburg
2.36
Altenmarkt
2.97

finishing

ASV Salzburg+0.00on par
Altenmarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Salzburg ↓

Altenmarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

ASV Salzburg or draw
65%
ASV Salzburg or Altenmarkt
79%
Draw or Altenmarkt
56%

Winning margin

ASV Salzburg wins by 2+
25%
Altenmarkt wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

ASV Salzburg 1+ goals
88%
ASV Salzburg 2+ goals
62%
ASV Salzburg 3+ goals
34%
Altenmarkt 1+ goals
85%
Altenmarkt 2+ goals
56%
Altenmarkt 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

ASV Salzburg (draw refunded)
55%
Altenmarkt (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Salzburg at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Altenmarkt away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Salzburg attack 1.21 + Altenmarkt defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.09

Altenmarkt attack 1.38 + ASV Salzburg defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ASV Salzburg scores more
44%
level
21%
Altenmarkt scores more
35%

ASV Salzburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASV Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASV Salzburg vs Altenmarkt

Altenmarkt beat ASV Salzburg 2-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Toni-Kronreif-Sportzentrum in Salzburg.