Altenmarkt 4–1 ASV Salzburg: Result & Stats

Altenmarkt

FT

4 – 1

ASV Salzburg

10/23/2022

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 12Sportanlage Schlatterberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Altenmarkt53%

×Draw21%

ASV Salzburg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltenmarktExpected goals in this matchASV Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.48

Altenmarkt

2.17

ASV Salzburg

1.48

Altenmarkt creates 47% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 28 away

1.56

creates per match

0.96

2.00

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Altenmarkt

1.56

ASV Salzburg

0.96

allows per match

Altenmarkt

2.00

ASV Salzburg

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altenmarkt+0.00on par

ASV Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altenmarkt ↓

ASV Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Altenmarkt or draw

74%

Altenmarkt or ASV Salzburg

79%

Draw or ASV Salzburg

47%

Winning margin

Altenmarkt wins by 2+

32%

ASV Salzburg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Altenmarkt 1+ goals

89%

Altenmarkt 2+ goals

64%

Altenmarkt 3+ goals

36%

ASV Salzburg 1+ goals

77%

ASV Salzburg 2+ goals

43%

ASV Salzburg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Altenmarkt (draw refunded)

67%

ASV Salzburg (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altenmarkt at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

ASV Salzburg away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altenmarkt attack 1.56 + ASV Salzburg defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.17

ASV Salzburg attack 0.96 + Altenmarkt defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Altenmarkt scores more

53%

level

21%

ASV Salzburg scores more

26%

Altenmarkt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Altenmarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff