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ASV Neumarkt vs Ammerthal — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ammerthal
Ammerthal
2/24/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 25Stadion am Deininger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

ASV Neumarkt44%
×Draw23%
Ammerthal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV Neumarkt
1.83
Ammerthal
1.56

ASV Neumarkt creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.76
Ammerthal
1.63

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt
1.49
Ammerthal
1.90

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par
Ammerthal+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Ammerthal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw
67%
ASV Neumarkt or Ammerthal
77%
Draw or Ammerthal
56%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
24%
Ammerthal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
84%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
54%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
28%
Ammerthal 1+ goals
79%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
46%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
57%
Ammerthal (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Ammerthal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Ammerthal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ammerthal attack 1.63 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more
44%
level
23%
Ammerthal scores more
33%

ASV Neumarkt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: ASV Neumarkt 2–1 Ammerthal

ASV Neumarkt beat Ammerthal 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am Deininger Weg in Neumarkt in der Oberpfalz.