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Ammerthal vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
7/15/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ammerthal44%
×Draw23%
ASV Neumarkt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.75
ASV Neumarkt
1.48

Ammerthal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
67%
Ammerthal or ASV Neumarkt
77%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
56%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
23%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
83%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
52%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
25%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
77%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
43%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
57%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ammerthal scores more
44%
level
23%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
33%

Ammerthal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Ammerthal 1–0 ASV Neumarkt

Ammerthal beat ASV Neumarkt 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 15, 2026.