ASV Neumarkt 2–3 1. SC Feucht: Result & Stats

ASV Neumarkt

FT

2 – 3

1. SC Feucht

8/2/2022

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5Stadion am Deininger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ASV Neumarkt55%

×Draw21%

1. SC Feucht25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASV NeumarktExpected goals in this match1. SC Feucht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.43

ASV Neumarkt

2.19

1. SC Feucht

1.43

ASV Neumarkt creates 53% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

1.76

creates per match

1.37

1.49

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt

1.76

1. SC Feucht

1.37

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt

1.49

1. SC Feucht

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

1. SC Feucht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw

75%

ASV Neumarkt or 1. SC Feucht

79%

Draw or 1. SC Feucht

45%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+

33%

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals

89%

ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals

64%

ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals

37%

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals

76%

1. SC Feucht 2+ goals

42%

1. SC Feucht 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)

69%

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

1. SC Feucht away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.19

1. SC Feucht attack 1.37 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more

55%

level

21%

1. SC Feucht scores more

25%

ASV Neumarkt at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff