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1. SC Feucht vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

1. SC Feucht
1. SC Feucht
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
3/4/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 22Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

1. SC Feucht26%
×Draw21%
ASV Neumarkt53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. SC Feucht
1.47
ASV Neumarkt
2.15

ASV Neumarkt creates 46% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

creates per match

1. SC Feucht
1.17
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

1. SC Feucht
2.71
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. SC Feucht ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

1. SC Feucht or draw
47%
1. SC Feucht or ASV Neumarkt
79%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
74%

Winning margin

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+
12%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals
77%
1. SC Feucht 2+ goals
43%
1. SC Feucht 3+ goals
18%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
88%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
63%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)
33%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. SC Feucht at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. SC Feucht attack 1.17 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.47

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

1. SC Feucht scores more
26%
level
21%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
53%

ASV Neumarkt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: 1. SC Feucht 1–4 ASV Neumarkt

ASV Neumarkt beat 1. SC Feucht 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Feucht.