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Astrakhan vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Astrakhan
Astrakhan
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
8/27/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion imeni Kolosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Astrakhan59%
×Draw22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astrakhan
1.88
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.94

Astrakhan creates 100% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 58 away

creates per match

Astrakhan
1.35
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Astrakhan
1.10
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Astrakhan+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astrakhan ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Astrakhan or draw
82%
Astrakhan or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
78%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
41%

Winning margin

Astrakhan wins by 2+
35%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Astrakhan 1+ goals
85%
Astrakhan 2+ goals
56%
Astrakhan 3+ goals
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
61%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
24%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Astrakhan (draw refunded)
76%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astrakhan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astrakhan attack 1.35 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.88

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Astrakhan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Astrakhan scores more
59%
level
22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
18%

Astrakhan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Astrakhan vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Astrakhan beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 5-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion imeni Kolosova in Astrakhan'.