Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2–3 Astrakhan

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Astrakhan

8/18/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II23%

×Draw22%

Astrakhan56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz IIExpected goals in this matchAstrakhan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.96

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.17

Astrakhan

1.96

Astrakhan creates 68% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 47 away

1.12

creates per match

1.15

2.78

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.12

Astrakhan

1.15

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.78

Astrakhan

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Astrakhan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw

44%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Astrakhan

78%

Draw or Astrakhan

77%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

9%

Astrakhan wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

69%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

33%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

11%

Astrakhan 1+ goals

86%

Astrakhan 2+ goals

58%

Astrakhan 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

29%

Astrakhan (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Astrakhan away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Astrakhan defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Astrakhan attack 1.15 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

23%

level

22%

Astrakhan scores more

56%

Astrakhan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Astrakhan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff