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Aster Brasil SP U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Aster Brasil SP U20
Aster Brasil SP U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
K. Piazzi 90+1' (pen)
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Ildeu Silvestre do Carmo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aster Brasil SP U2036%
×Draw28%
Água Santa U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aster Brasil SP U20
1.20
Água Santa U20
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Aster Brasil SP U20
0.40
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

Aster Brasil SP U20
1.20
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

Aster Brasil SP U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aster Brasil SP U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aster Brasil SP U20 or draw
64%
Aster Brasil SP U20 or Água Santa U20
72%
Draw or Água Santa U20
64%

Winning margin

Aster Brasil SP U20 wins by 2+
15%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aster Brasil SP U20 1+ goals
70%
Aster Brasil SP U20 2+ goals
34%
Aster Brasil SP U20 3+ goals
12%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
70%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
33%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aster Brasil SP U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aster Brasil SP U20 at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aster Brasil SP U20 attack 0.40 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Aster Brasil SP U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Aster Brasil SP U20 scores more
36%
level
28%
Água Santa U20 scores more
36%

Aster Brasil SP U20 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Aster Brasil SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+1'
K. PiazziPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Aster Brasil SP U20 1–0 Água Santa U20

Aster Brasil SP U20 beat Água Santa U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: K. Piazzi (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Ildeu Silvestre do Carmo in Itaquaquecetuba, São Paulo.