Água Santa U20 3–1 Aster Brasil SP U20

Água Santa U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aster Brasil SP U20

L. Ramos Sales dos Santos 78'

E. Vinicius 67'

R. Rodrigues dos Santos 35'

Caique 14'

6/14/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Água Santa U2047%

×Draw29%

Aster Brasil SP U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Água Santa U20Expected goals in this matchAster Brasil SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.83

Água Santa U20

1.27

Aster Brasil SP U20

0.83

Água Santa U20 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

0.60

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Água Santa U20

1.53

Aster Brasil SP U20

0.60

allows per match

Água Santa U20

1.06

Aster Brasil SP U20

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Aster Brasil SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

Aster Brasil SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw

76%

Água Santa U20 or Aster Brasil SP U20

71%

Draw or Aster Brasil SP U20

53%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+

21%

Aster Brasil SP U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals

72%

Água Santa U20 2+ goals

36%

Água Santa U20 3+ goals

14%

Aster Brasil SP U20 1+ goals

56%

Aster Brasil SP U20 2+ goals

20%

Aster Brasil SP U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Aster Brasil SP U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Aster Brasil SP U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Aster Brasil SP U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Aster Brasil SP U20 attack 0.60 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more

47%

level

29%

Aster Brasil SP U20 scores more

24%

Água Santa U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Caique

35'

R. Rodrigues dos Santos

67'

E. Vinicius

78'

L. Ramos Sales dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff