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ASK Klagenfurt vs Deutschlandsberger SC — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Deutschlandsberger SC
Deutschlandsberger SC
10/29/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 14ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt44%
×Draw22%
Deutschlandsberger SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASK Klagenfurt
1.84
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.58

ASK Klagenfurt creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 107 away

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.95
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.60

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.57
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.73

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw
67%
ASK Klagenfurt or Deutschlandsberger SC
78%
Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC
56%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
24%
Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
84%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
55%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
28%
Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals
79%
Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals
47%
Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
57%
Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.95 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.84

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more
44%
level
22%
Deutschlandsberger SC scores more
33%

ASK Klagenfurt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASK Klagenfurt vs Deutschlandsberger SC

ASK Klagenfurt beat Deutschlandsberger SC 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at ASK-Sportanlage Fischl in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.