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Ashanti Gold vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
Y. Annor 81', 14', 12'
E. Esso 45+2'
A. K. Nkrumah 39'
A. Adams 36'
4/9/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ashanti Gold58%
×Draw25%
WAFA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.58
WAFA
0.71

Ashanti Gold creates 123% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.78
WAFA
0.84

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.58
WAFA
1.39

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
83%
Ashanti Gold or WAFA
75%
Draw or WAFA
42%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
31%
WAFA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
79%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
47%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
21%
WAFA 1+ goals
51%
WAFA 2+ goals
16%
WAFA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
78%
WAFA (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.39 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.78 + WAFA defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

WAFA attack 0.84 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
58%
level
25%
WAFA scores more
17%

Ashanti Gold at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Y. Annor
14'
Y. Annor
23'
36'
A. Adams
39'
A. K. Nkrumah
45+2'
E. Esso
46'
O. Kingsley← O. Kingsley
59'
R. Tesrand Emerys← R. Tesrand Emerys
59'
K. Amoako← K. Amoako
74'
E. Addai← E. Addai
74'
Y. S. Dauda← Y. S. Dauda
81'
Y. Annor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ashanti Gold vs WAFA

Ashanti Gold beat WAFA 6-0 in Premier League on April 9, 2022.

Goals: Y. Annor (12', 14', 81'), A. Adams (36'), A. K. Nkrumah (39'), E. Esso (45+2').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.