Ashanti Gold 2–1 Bechem United: Result & Stats

Ashanti Gold

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bechem United

R. O. Agyemang 90+2'

J. Andoh 87'

E. Avornyo 10'

6/12/2022

Premier League · Round 33Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ashanti Gold60%

×Draw24%

Bechem United16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ashanti GoldExpected goals in this matchBechem United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.72

Ashanti Gold

1.68

Bechem United

0.72

Ashanti Gold creates 133% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 109 away

1.80

creates per match

0.82

0.63

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Ashanti Gold

1.80

Bechem United

0.82

allows per match

Ashanti Gold

0.63

Bechem United

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Bechem United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw

84%

Ashanti Gold or Bechem United

76%

Draw or Bechem United

40%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

34%

Bechem United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

81%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

50%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

24%

Bechem United 1+ goals

51%

Bechem United 2+ goals

16%

Bechem United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

79%

Bechem United (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.63 · 41 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.56 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.80 + Bechem United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more

60%

level

24%

Bechem United scores more

16%

Ashanti Gold at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

E. Avornyo

27'

R. O. Agyemang← R. O. Agyemang

56'

C. Duodo← C. Duodo

62'

H. Konkoni← H. Konkoni

82'

M. Agama← M. Agama

82'

J. Andoh← J. Andoh

87'

J. Andoh

90+2'

R. O. Agyemang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff