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Ashanti Gold vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
4 – 0
Bechem United
Bechem United
D. Sandan Abagna 84'
K. S. Osei 45+1'
A. Addai 14' (pen)
Y. Annor 10'
4/25/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ashanti Gold60%
×Draw24%
Bechem United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.68
Bechem United
0.72

Ashanti Gold creates 133% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 109 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.80
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.63
Bechem United
1.56

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
84%
Ashanti Gold or Bechem United
76%
Draw or Bechem United
40%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
34%
Bechem United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
81%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
50%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
24%
Bechem United 1+ goals
51%
Bechem United 2+ goals
16%
Bechem United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
79%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.63 · 41 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.56 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.80 + Bechem United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
60%
level
24%
Bechem United scores more
16%

Ashanti Gold at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Y. Annor
14'
A. AddaiPenalty
32'
44'
F. Akoto
45+1'
K. S. Osei
52'
E. Esso
59'
59'
60'
D. Sandan Abagna← D. Sandan Abagna
60'
S. Nyarko← S. Nyarko
73'
Y. Annor← G. K. Brokelyn
80'
84'
D. Sandan Abagna
90+2'
K. Amoako

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ashanti Gold 4–0 Bechem United

Ashanti Gold beat Bechem United 4-0 in Premier League on April 25, 2021.

Goals: Y. Annor (10'), A. Addai (14' pen), K. S. Osei (45+1'), D. Sandan Abagna (84').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.