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Ashanti Gold vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
0 – 0
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
1/31/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ashanti Gold51%
×Draw29%
Asante Kotoko20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.32
Asante Kotoko
0.71

Ashanti Gold creates 86% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.78
Asante Kotoko
0.85

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.58
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
80%
Ashanti Gold or Asante Kotoko
71%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
49%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
24%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
73%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
38%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
15%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
51%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
16%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
72%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.78 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.32

Asante Kotoko attack 0.85 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
51%
level
29%
Asante Kotoko scores more
20%

Ashanti Gold at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
H. Kwofie← H. Kwofie
60'
I. Ganiyu
65'
A. Latif← A. Latif
66'
A. Okrah← E. Gyamfi
77'
N. Keita← N. Keita

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ashanti Gold 0–0 Asante Kotoko

Ashanti Gold and Asante Kotoko drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.