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Asante Kotoko vs Ashanti Gold — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
F. Mbella 73', 67', 55' (pen)
E. Addai 85'
1/9/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Asante Kotoko53%
×Draw27%
Ashanti Gold19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.41
Ashanti Gold
0.72

Asante Kotoko creates 96% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 43 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Ashanti Gold
0.79

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.64
Ashanti Gold
1.35

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Ashanti Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
81%
Asante Kotoko or Ashanti Gold
73%
Draw or Ashanti Gold
47%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
27%
Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
76%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
41%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
17%
Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
51%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
16%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
74%
Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.64 · 109 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ashanti Gold attack 0.79 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
53%
level
27%
Ashanti Gold scores more
19%

Asante Kotoko at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
51'
E. Esso
55'
F. MbellaPenalty
57'
A. K. Nkrumah← A. K. Nkrumah
62'
M. Sherif← M. Sherif
67'
F. Mbella
73'
F. Mbella
74'
85'
E. Addai
88'
E. Adomako← E. Adomako

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asante Kotoko vs Ashanti Gold

Asante Kotoko beat Ashanti Gold 3-1 in Premier League on January 9, 2022.

Goals: F. Mbella (55' pen, 67', 73'), E. Addai (85').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.