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Ashanti Gold vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
4 – 0
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
D. Sandan Abagna 90', 60'
Y. Annor 29'
F. Akoto 24' (pen)
2/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ashanti Gold58%
×Draw26%
Aduana Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
1.52
Aduana Stars
0.67

Ashanti Gold creates 127% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.78
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.58
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
84%
Ashanti Gold or Aduana Stars
74%
Draw or Aduana Stars
42%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
30%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
78%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
45%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
20%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
49%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
15%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
78%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.78 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
58%
level
26%
Aduana Stars scores more
16%

Ashanti Gold at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
F. AkotoPenalty
29'
Y. Annor
50'
Y. Annor← J. Aseidu
56'
S. Bioh← S. Bioh
60'
D. Sandan Abagna
61'
P. Yeboah← P. Yeboah
64'
A. Da Costa← A. Da Costa
76'
E. Esso
90'
D. Sandan Abagna

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ashanti Gold 4–0 Aduana Stars

Ashanti Gold beat Aduana Stars 4-0 in Premier League on February 19, 2021.

Goals: F. Akoto (24' pen), Y. Annor (29'), D. Sandan Abagna (60', 90').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.