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Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
1 – 0
Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
O. Baffour 76'
7/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Aduana Stars54%
×Draw27%
Ashanti Gold19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.41
Ashanti Gold
0.70

Aduana Stars creates 101% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 44 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.46
Ashanti Gold
0.82

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.59
Ashanti Gold
1.36

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Ashanti Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
81%
Aduana Stars or Ashanti Gold
73%
Draw or Ashanti Gold
46%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
27%
Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
76%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
41%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
17%
Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
50%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
16%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
74%
Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.59 · 110 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.46 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ashanti Gold attack 0.82 + Aduana Stars defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
54%
level
27%
Ashanti Gold scores more
19%

Aduana Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
K. Brefo← K. Brefo
44'
A. Addai
52'
B. Adjei← B. Adjei
58'
I. Samed
62'
M. Agyekum
67'
O. Baffour← O. Baffour
74'
P. de Vries← P. de Vries
76'
O. Baffour
85'
A. Addai← Y. Annor
88'
G. K. Brokelyn← G. K. Brokelyn

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold

Aduana Stars beat Ashanti Gold 1-0 in Premier League on July 5, 2021.

Goals: O. Baffour (76').

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.