Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aserri FC vs ADR Jicaral — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
0 – 2
ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaraladvanced
11/12/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Aserri FC34%
×Draw27%
ADR Jicaral39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.20
ADR Jicaral
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 94 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
ADR Jicaral
1.36

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
ADR Jicaral
1.07

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

ADR Jicaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
61%
Aserri FC or ADR Jicaral
73%
Draw or ADR Jicaral
66%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
14%
ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
70%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
34%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
12%
ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
73%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
38%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
46%
ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

ADR Jicaral away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + ADR Jicaral defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

ADR Jicaral attack 1.36 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aserri FC scores more
34%
level
27%
ADR Jicaral scores more
39%

ADR Jicaral at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Aserri FC 0–2 ADR Jicaral

ADR Jicaral beat Aserri FC 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge in San José.