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ADR Jicaral vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaraladvanced
FT
2 – 1
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
11/6/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsCancha de la Asociación Cívica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ADR Jicaral60%
×Draw22%
Aserri FC18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADR Jicaral
1.96
Aserri FC
0.98

ADR Jicaral creates 100% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 106 away

creates per match

ADR Jicaral
2.25
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

ADR Jicaral
0.89
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADR Jicaral ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

ADR Jicaral or draw
82%
ADR Jicaral or Aserri FC
78%
Draw or Aserri FC
40%

Winning margin

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
36%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
86%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
58%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
31%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
62%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
26%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
77%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADR Jicaral at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADR Jicaral attack 2.25 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.96

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + ADR Jicaral defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

ADR Jicaral scores more
60%
level
22%
Aserri FC scores more
18%

ADR Jicaral at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADR Jicaral vs Aserri FC

ADR Jicaral beat Aserri FC 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Cancha de la Asociación Cívica in Jicaral.