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Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
9/19/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 7Estadio Municipal de Aserrí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Aserri FC41%
×Draw26%
AD Carmelita34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.43
AD Carmelita
1.28

Aserri FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 104 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
AD Carmelita
1.31

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
AD Carmelita
1.54

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

AD Carmelita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
66%
Aserri FC or AD Carmelita
74%
Draw or AD Carmelita
59%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
19%
AD Carmelita wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
76%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
42%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
17%
AD Carmelita 1+ goals
72%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
37%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
55%
AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aserri FC scores more
41%
level
26%
AD Carmelita scores more
34%

Aserri FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aserri FC vs AD Carmelita

Aserri FC beat AD Carmelita 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Aserrí.