Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
11/2/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

AD Carmelita48%
×Draw24%
Aserri FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Carmelita
1.66
Aserri FC
1.19

AD Carmelita creates 39% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 106 away

creates per match

AD Carmelita
1.64
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

AD Carmelita
1.31
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

AD Carmelita+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Carmelita ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AD Carmelita or draw
73%
AD Carmelita or Aserri FC
76%
Draw or Aserri FC
52%

Winning margin

AD Carmelita wins by 2+
25%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AD Carmelita 1+ goals
81%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
49%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
23%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
70%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
33%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
64%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Carmelita at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.31 · 106 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Carmelita attack 1.64 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.66

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + AD Carmelita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AD Carmelita scores more
48%
level
24%
Aserri FC scores more
27%

AD Carmelita at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AD Carmelita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AD Carmelita 1–1 Aserri FC

AD Carmelita and Aserri FC drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 2, 2025.