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Asante Kotoko vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Medeama
Medeama
V. Atingah 78' (pen)
J. Sowah 15'
3/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Asante Kotoko51%
×Draw28%
Medeama21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.33
Medeama
0.74

Asante Kotoko creates 80% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 112 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.64
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
79%
Asante Kotoko or Medeama
72%
Draw or Medeama
49%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
24%
Medeama wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
74%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
38%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
15%
Medeama 1+ goals
52%
Medeama 2+ goals
17%
Medeama 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
71%
Medeama (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.64 · 109 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Medeama attack 0.85 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
51%
level
28%
Medeama scores more
21%

Asante Kotoko at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Sowah
37'
66'
S. Zeze← S. Zeze
66'
P. Boakye Owusu← P. Boakye Owusu
71'
I. Oppong← I. Oppong
78'
V. AtingahPenalty
82'
87'
B. Musah← B. Musah
87'
K. Asmah← K. Asmah
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 0–2 Medeama

Medeama beat Asante Kotoko 2-0 in Premier League on March 26, 2023.

Goals: J. Sowah (15'), V. Atingah (78' pen).

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.