Asante Kotoko 2–3 Accra Lions: Result & Stats

Asante Kotoko

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Accra Lions

3/13/2024

Premier League · Round 21Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Asante Kotoko59%

×Draw26%

Accra Lions15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asante KotokoExpected goals in this matchAccra Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.61

Asante Kotoko

1.52

Accra Lions

0.61

Asante Kotoko creates 149% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 67 away

1.47

creates per match

0.58

0.65

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Asante Kotoko

1.47

Accra Lions

0.58

allows per match

Asante Kotoko

0.65

Accra Lions

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Accra Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw

85%

Asante Kotoko or Accra Lions

74%

Draw or Accra Lions

41%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+

32%

Accra Lions wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals

78%

Asante Kotoko 2+ goals

45%

Asante Kotoko 3+ goals

20%

Accra Lions 1+ goals

46%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

13%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)

80%

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more

59%

level

26%

Accra Lions scores more

15%

Asante Kotoko at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff