Accra Lions 3–0 Asante Kotoko: Result & Stats

Accra Lions

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Asante Kotoko

4/16/2025

Premier League · Round 22Accra Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Accra Lions41%

×Draw31%

Asante Kotoko28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accra LionsExpected goals in this matchAsante Kotoko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.84

Accra Lions

1.09

Asante Kotoko

0.84

Accra Lions creates 30% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 109 away

1.32

creates per match

0.84

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Accra Lions

1.32

Asante Kotoko

0.84

allows per match

Accra Lions

0.84

Asante Kotoko

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Asante Kotoko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw

72%

Accra Lions or Asante Kotoko

69%

Draw or Asante Kotoko

59%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+

17%

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals

66%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

30%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

10%

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals

57%

Asante Kotoko 2+ goals

21%

Asante Kotoko 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

60%

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.09

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Accra Lions scores more

41%

level

31%

Asante Kotoko scores more

28%

Accra Lions at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff