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Åsane II vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Åsane II
Åsane II
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Årdal
Årdal
5/5/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 5Åsane Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åsane II53%
×Draw18%
Årdal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åsane II
2.96
Årdal
2.20

Åsane II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åsane II
2.00
Årdal
1.54

allows per match

Åsane II
2.85
Årdal
3.92

finishing

Åsane II+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane II ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Åsane II or draw
71%
Åsane II or Årdal
82%
Draw or Årdal
47%

Winning margin

Åsane II wins by 2+
35%
Årdal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Åsane II 1+ goals
95%
Åsane II 2+ goals
79%
Åsane II 3+ goals
55%
Årdal 1+ goals
89%
Årdal 2+ goals
64%
Årdal 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Åsane II (draw refunded)
65%
Årdal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

Årdal away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane II attack 2.00 + Årdal defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.96

Årdal attack 1.54 + Åsane II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Åsane II scores more
53%
level
18%
Årdal scores more
29%

Åsane II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Åsane II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åsane II vs Årdal

Åsane II beat Årdal 5-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Åsane Arena in Bergen.