Årdal 11–2 Åsane II: Result & Stats

Årdal

FT

11 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Åsane II

10/5/2024

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 24Jotun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Årdal53%

×Draw17%

Åsane II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÅrdalExpected goals in this matchÅsane II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.27

2.46

Årdal

3.27

Åsane II

2.46

Årdal creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.85

creates per match

1.85

3.08

allows per match

3.69

creates per match

Årdal

2.85

Åsane II

1.85

allows per match

Årdal

3.08

Åsane II

3.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par

Åsane II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Åsane II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Årdal or draw

71%

Årdal or Åsane II

83%

Draw or Åsane II

47%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+

35%

Åsane II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals

96%

Årdal 2+ goals

83%

Årdal 3+ goals

62%

Åsane II 1+ goals

91%

Åsane II 2+ goals

70%

Åsane II 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)

64%

Åsane II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

85%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 2.85, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Åsane II away — creates 1.85, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 2.85 + Åsane II defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 3.27

Åsane II attack 1.85 + Årdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Årdal scores more

53%

level

17%

Åsane II scores more

29%

Årdal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Årdal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff