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AS Roma vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
L. Pellegrini 74' (pen)
K. De Winter 62'
1/25/2026Serie ASerie A · Round 22Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AS Roma42%
×Draw26%
AC Milan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.41
AC Milan
1.17

AS Roma creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.65
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

AS Roma
0.76
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

AS Roma+0.25scores more
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
69%
AS Roma or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
58%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
20%
AC Milan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
76%
AS Roma 2+ goals
41%
AS Roma 3+ goals
17%
AC Milan 1+ goals
69%
AC Milan 2+ goals
33%
AC Milan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
58%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 20 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.65 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.41

AC Milan attack 1.57 + AS Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Roma scores more
42%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
31%

AS Roma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
Z. Athekame← A. Saelemaekers
51'
Adrien Rabiot
55'
Zachary Athekame
59'
N. Pisilli← M. Kone
62'
K. De Winter↳ L. Modric
68'
N. Fullkrug← R. Leao
68'
C. Pulisic← C. Nkunku
69'
L. Pellegrini← P. Dybala
69'
R. Vaz← D. Malen
70'
Luka Modrić
74'
Mike Maignan
74'
L. PellegriniPenalty
79'
R. Loftus-Cheek← S. Ricci
85'
L. Venturino← M. Soule

Possession

58%AS

Shots

15AS

Pass accuracy

51%AS

Statistics

ASAC
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots5
2.72Expected Goals (xG)0.45
5Corners3
15Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots5
7On Target2
3Off Target2
5Blocked1
11Inside Box4
4Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
586Total Passes434
511Accurate Passes359
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
1.60Goals Prevented1.60
Discipline
15Fouls11
0Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: AS Roma vs AC Milan

AS Roma and AC Milan drew 1-1 in Serie A on January 25, 2026.

Goals: K. De Winter (62'), L. Pellegrini (74' pen).

AS Roma controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.