AC Milan 1–0 AS Roma: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AS Roma

S. Pavlovic 39'

11/2/2025

Serie A · Round 10Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AC Milan41%

×Draw25%

AS Roma33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchAS Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

AC Milan

1.46

AS Roma

1.29

AC Milan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 20 away

1.67

creates per match

1.43

1.15

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

AC Milan

1.67

AS Roma

1.43

allows per match

AC Milan

1.15

AS Roma

1.24

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

AC Milan-0.24scores less

AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

AS Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

67%

AC Milan or AS Roma

75%

Draw or AS Roma

59%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

20%

AS Roma wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

77%

AC Milan 2+ goals

43%

AC Milan 3+ goals

18%

AS Roma 1+ goals

72%

AS Roma 2+ goals

37%

AS Roma 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

55%

AS Roma (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.67 + AS Roma defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

AS Roma attack 1.43 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AC Milan scores more

41%

level

25%

AS Roma scores more

33%

AC Milan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Neil El Aynaoui

39'

S. Pavlovic↳ R. Leao

51'

L. Bailey← M. Soule

52'

L. Pellegrini← N. El Aynaoui

74'

75'

77'

78'

83'

84'

R. Loftus-Cheek← C. Nkunku

84'

K. Tsimikas← M. Hermoso

84'

T. Baldanzi← P. Dybala

88'

Z. Athekame← A. Saelemaekers

90+5'

Gianluca Mancini

90+4'

F. Tomori← R. Leao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACAS

Overview

37%Possession63%

17Total Shots20

3.32Expected Goals (xG)1.95

7Corners8

12Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots20

8On Target6

7Off Target10

2Blocked4

13Inside Box14

4Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

313Total Passes523

259Accurate Passes470

83%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

7Saves6

0.51Goals Prevented0.51

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1