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AS Roma vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AC Milan
AC Milan
S. El Shaarawy 90+3'
F. Kessié 57' (pen)
Z. Ibrahimović 25'
10/31/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 11Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

AS Roma42%
×Draw27%
AC Milan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.37
AC Milan
1.14

AS Roma creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.60
AC Milan
1.53

allows per match

AS Roma
0.74
AC Milan
1.14

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
AC Milan-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
69%
AS Roma or AC Milan
73%
Draw or AC Milan
58%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
20%
AC Milan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
75%
AS Roma 2+ goals
40%
AS Roma 3+ goals
16%
AC Milan 1+ goals
68%
AC Milan 2+ goals
32%
AC Milan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
57%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.74 · 21 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.60 + AC Milan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

AC Milan attack 1.53 + AS Roma defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Roma scores more
42%
level
27%
AC Milan scores more
31%

AS Roma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

92
S. El ShaarawyAS RomaAS Roma · F
7.7

Match Events

7'
Nicolò Zaniolo
24'
Rick Karsdorp
25'
Z. Ibrahimović
27'
Zlatan Ibrahimović
41'
Theo Hernández
46'
F. Ohene-Gyan← H. Mkhitaryan
49'
Gianluca Mancini
51'
Zlatan IbrahimovićGoal confirmed
54'
Zlatan IbrahimovićPenalty confirmed
57'
O. Giroud← Z. Ibrahimović
57'
F. KessiéPenalty
63'
S. El Shaarawy← T. Abraham
65'
Fikayo Tomori
66'
Theo Hernández
66'
Theo Hernández
67'
Davide Calabria
68'
Carles Pérez← M. Viña
68'
F. Ballo← A. Saelemaekers
76'
S. Tonali← Rafael Leão
76'
T. Bakayoko← R. Krunić
76'
A. Romagnoli← I. Bennacer
77'
Olivier Giroud
80'
E. Shomurodov← R. Karsdorp
81'
Franck Kessié
90+7'
Jordan Veretout
90+3'
S. El Shaarawy

Possession

50%AS

Shots

24AS

Pass accuracy

51%AS

Statistics

ASAC
Overview
50%Possession50%
24Total Shots8
5Corners2
19Fouls13
Shots
24Total Shots8
6On Target3
12Off Target4
6Blocked1
13Inside Box4
11Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
377Total Passes400
327Accurate Passes341
87%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
19Fouls13
4Yellow Cards7
0Red Cards1
2Offsides5

Serie A: AS Roma 1–2 AC Milan

AC Milan beat AS Roma 2-1 in Serie A on October 31, 2021.

Goals: Z. Ibrahimović (25'), F. Kessié (57' pen), S. El Shaarawy (90+3').

AS Roma controlled possession (50%) and registered 24 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.