AS Roma 1–2 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

AS Roma

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AC Milan

J. Veretout 50'

A. Rebić 58'

F. Kessié 43' (pen)

2/28/2021

Serie A · Round 24Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

AS Roma42%

×Draw27%

AC Milan31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS RomaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

AS Roma

1.37

AC Milan

1.14

AS Roma creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

1.60

creates per match

1.53

0.74

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

AS Roma

1.60

AC Milan

1.53

allows per match

AS Roma

0.74

AC Milan

1.14

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more

AC Milan-0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw

69%

AS Roma or AC Milan

73%

Draw or AC Milan

58%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+

20%

AC Milan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals

75%

AS Roma 2+ goals

40%

AS Roma 3+ goals

16%

AC Milan 1+ goals

68%

AC Milan 2+ goals

32%

AC Milan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)

57%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.74 · 21 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.60 + AC Milan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

AC Milan attack 1.53 + AS Roma defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Roma scores more

42%

level

27%

AC Milan scores more

31%

AS Roma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

G. Donnarumma

AC Milan · G

7.9

Match Events

41'

Federico Fazio

41'

Davide CalabriaGoal cancelled

43'

F. KessiéPenalty

46'

Alexis Saelemaekers

46'

Brahim Díaz← H. Çalhanoğlu

50'

J. Veretout↳ L. Spinazzola

56'

Rafael Leão← Z. Ibrahimović

58'

A. Rebić↳ A. Saelemaekers

62'

Bruno Peres← F. Fazio

67'

R. Krunić← A. Rebić

70'

S. El Shaarawy← Gonzalo Villar

79'

Pedro← Borja Mayoral

79'

A. Diawara← J. Veretout

80'

Henrikh Mkhitaryan

83'

Samu Castillejo← A. Saelemaekers

83'

85'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ASAC

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots17

5Corners8

14Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots17

8On Target9

4Off Target5

6Blocked3

15Inside Box14

3Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

469Total Passes409

394Accurate Passes340

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4