AS Puma Generalena 0–6 ADR Jicaral: Result & Stats

AS Puma Generalena

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

ADR Jicaral

9/24/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12Estadio de Damas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AS Puma Generalena33%

×Draw27%

ADR Jicaral41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Puma GeneralenaExpected goals in this matchADR Jicaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

AS Puma Generalena

1.18

ADR Jicaral

1.35

ADR Jicaral creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 96 away

1.28

creates per match

1.34

1.36

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.28

ADR Jicaral

1.34

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.36

ADR Jicaral

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

ADR Jicaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw

59%

AS Puma Generalena or ADR Jicaral

73%

Draw or ADR Jicaral

67%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

13%

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

69%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

33%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

12%

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals

74%

ADR Jicaral 2+ goals

39%

ADR Jicaral 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

45%

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

ADR Jicaral away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + ADR Jicaral defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

ADR Jicaral attack 1.34 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more

33%

level

27%

ADR Jicaral scores more

41%

ADR Jicaral at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff