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ADR Jicaral vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
4/1/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 17Cancha de la Asociación Cívica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

ADR Jicaral65%
×Draw20%
AS Puma Generalena15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADR Jicaral
2.09
AS Puma Generalena
0.90

ADR Jicaral creates 132% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 74 away

creates per match

ADR Jicaral
2.25
AS Puma Generalena
0.92

allows per match

ADR Jicaral
0.88
AS Puma Generalena
1.93

finishing

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADR Jicaral ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ADR Jicaral or draw
85%
ADR Jicaral or AS Puma Generalena
80%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
35%

Winning margin

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
40%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
88%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
62%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
34%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
59%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
23%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
81%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADR Jicaral at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADR Jicaral attack 2.25 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.09

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + ADR Jicaral defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

ADR Jicaral scores more
65%
level
20%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
15%

ADR Jicaral at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: ADR Jicaral 3–1 AS Puma Generalena

ADR Jicaral beat AS Puma Generalena 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Cancha de la Asociación Cívica in Jicaral.