AS Puma Generalena 1–0 AD Guanacasteca

AS Puma Generalena

FT

1 – 0

AD Guanacasteca

2/6/2021

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 4Estadio Municipal de Garabito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

AS Puma Generalena36%

×Draw25%

AD Guanacasteca39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Puma GeneralenaExpected goals in this matchAD Guanacasteca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.44

AS Puma Generalena

1.39

AD Guanacasteca

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 50 away

1.28

creates per match

1.52

1.36

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.28

AD Guanacasteca

1.52

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.36

AD Guanacasteca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

AD Guanacasteca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw

61%

AS Puma Generalena or AD Guanacasteca

75%

Draw or AD Guanacasteca

64%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

17%

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

75%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

40%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

16%

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals

76%

AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals

42%

AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

48%

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

AD Guanacasteca away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.52 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more

36%

level

25%

AD Guanacasteca scores more

39%

AD Guanacasteca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff