AD Guanacasteca 2–2 AS Puma Generalena

AD Guanacasteca

FT

2 – 2

AS Puma Generalena

9/26/2020

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Chorotega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

AD Guanacasteca53%

×Draw25%

AS Puma Generalena23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD GuanacastecaExpected goals in this matchAS Puma Generalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

AD Guanacasteca

1.64

AS Puma Generalena

0.98

AD Guanacasteca creates 67% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 74 away

1.35

creates per match

0.92

1.04

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

AD Guanacasteca

1.35

AS Puma Generalena

0.92

allows per match

AD Guanacasteca

1.04

AS Puma Generalena

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Guanacasteca ↓

AS Puma Generalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AD Guanacasteca or draw

77%

AD Guanacasteca or AS Puma Generalena

75%

Draw or AS Puma Generalena

47%

Winning margin

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+

28%

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals

81%

AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals

49%

AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals

23%

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

62%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

26%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)

70%

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Guanacasteca at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.04 · 52 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.35 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AD Guanacasteca scores more

53%

level

25%

AS Puma Generalena scores more

23%

AD Guanacasteca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff